http://forums.steampowered.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1087168
Some guy made a program that simulates tf2's item drops and then speeds up the process. It's a simulation of how long it would actually take to craft a hat and or get one randomly.
It took me 380 hours to craft a medic hat and then another 220 to get a soldier hat.
It took me 2, 200, 100, 160, and 120 hours to get 5 random dropped hats.



